Trustee's report was recently released by the social security administration at: https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2025/index.html
The trustees' report has long predicted the depletion of the trust fund by 2034.
"The combined reserves are projected to decrease from $2,721 billion at the beginning of 2025 to $214 billion at the beginning of 2034, and are then expected to become depleted during 2034, the last year of the short-range period.
Expressed in present-value dollars discounted to January 1, 2025, the open-group unfunded obligation for OASDI is $25.1 trillion over the 75-year projection period 2025-99. This is $2.5 trillion more than the measured level in last year’s report of $22.6 trillion over 2024-98, discounted to January 1, 2024."
"To illustrate the magnitude of the 75-year actuarial deficit, consider that for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds to remain fully solvent throughout the 75-year projection period ending in 2099:
Revenue would have to increase by an amount equivalent to an immediate and permanent payroll tax rate increase of 3.65 percentage points5 to 16.05 percent beginning in January 2025;
Scheduled benefits would have to either be reduced by an amount equivalent to an immediate and permanent reduction of 22.4 percent applied to all current and future beneficiaries effective in January 2025, or by 26.8 percent if the reductions were applied only to those who become initially eligible for benefits in 2025 or later; or
some combination of these approaches would have to be adopted.
If substantial actions are deferred for several years, the changes necessary to maintain solvency for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds would be concentrated on fewer years and fewer generations. Significantly larger changes would be necessary if action is deferred until the combined trust fund reserves become depleted in 2034. For example, maintaining 75-year solvency through 2099 with changes that begin in 2034 would require:
An increase in revenue by an amount equivalent to a permanent 4.27 percentage point payroll tax rate increase to 16.67 percent starting in 2034,
A reduction in scheduled benefits by an amount equivalent to a permanent 25.8 percent reduction in all benefits starting in 2034, or
some combination of these approaches."
The simple mathematical truth is the now $25 trillion short fall can only be solved by
higher taxes,
reduced benefits or
printing more money, hundreds of billions per year that is inflationary and reduces the spending power of the dollars received.
None of this is factored into the $37 trillion current gross national debt which is estimated to grow to $56 trillion by 2034.